Tyrion Lannister

Great Polling News for Carson and JLT; Presidential Race is a Push

Filed By Tyrion Lannister | April 29, 2008 3:02 PM | comments

Filed in: Politics, Politics

From the IBJ, the Howey-Gauge poll shows wide margins for Andre Carson in IN-07 and Jill Long Thompson in the gubernatorial primary:

Democratic presidential hopefuls Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are locked in a virtual dead heat in Indiana, according to the latest Howey-Gauge Poll.

Hoosiers favor Obama over Clinton by the slim margin of 47 percent to 45 percent.

In the race for governor, Democrat Jill Long Thompson holds a commanding lead of 45 percent to 27 percent over challenger Jim Schellinger, who suffers from a lack of name recognition, according to pollsters.

The poll by Gauge Market Research was conducted April 23-24, after the Pennsylvania primary election, through two surveys of 600 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

In the 5th Congressional District, a survey of 400 likely voters found 57 percent prefer U.S. Rep. Dan Burton compared to 22 percent for his Republican challenger, Dr. John McGoff.

A similar survey in the 7th Congressional District has newly elected U.S. Rep. Andre Carson leading his closest rival, Dr. Woody Myers, by a margin of 45 percent to 27 percent. State Reps. David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays trail with 7 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

A healthy dose of skepticism is required, but this is great news for Andre. It shows, at the very least, Dr. Myers' "momentum" has probably been heavily blunted by the Obama endorsement and the recent Carson ads.

Crossposted at Tyrion's Point and Blue Indiana.

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Can someone (I nominate you) keep track of all of these local polls and compare them to election results? I find the local polls to be disturbingly inaccurate. I seem to recall (correct me if I am wrong) that several times polls showed Julia well behind her challenger at this piont in the race, only to have her win by 10 points. Several other polls stick out in my mind as being similiar in results. Now of course, there are many possible explanations for this, but one can only use them so many times before the polling data itself should be blamed.

I actually took a political polling class in undergrad. Too bad I can't remember a damn thing from it.

Not sure what relevance my comment has to this poll (I think the result will be closer, but will not be suprised if Andre wins), but just a comment about Indy polls in general.

Tyrion Lannister Tyrion Lannister | May 1, 2008 12:35 PM

Heh. I accept the nomination.

Polling is weird and of marginal value at best. Julia always outperformed her polling. If I had to guess, I expect Andre will outperform his as well, though this poll may well be an outlier in terms of the size of his lead. It may not be. I broke it down here.