Alex Blaze

Califonia's Prop 8 is gaining traction

Filed By Alex Blaze | October 07, 2008 2:00 PM | comments

Filed in: Marriage Equality, Politics
Tags: California, Celinda Lake, Equality California, gay marriage, Geoff Kors, Mark Reed, marriage, marriage equality, Prop. 8, same-sex marriage

Survey USA has a new poll out today putting the race for Proposition 8, California's amendment to ban same-sex marriage, at 47-42. Under two weeks ago, SUSA had the No campaign winning by 5 points. CBS, which funded the poll, shows that the Yes campaign's wins were mostly among young voters.

Internal polling released by the No campaign today (performed by Lake Research Partners) also shows that the gays are behind in a poll of likely voters, 47-43. The poll was conducted last week.

The fundraising numbers are favoring the Yes side; so far, they've raised $19.7M and the No campaign has raised $15.3M. The No campaign estimates that 40% of the money is coming from the LDS Church and members.

I just got off a conference call with the No campaign and they're stuck on the Yes campaign's recent ad featuring Gavin Newsom. That ad and more on the polling after the jump.

Here's the Yes campaign's ad:

iPhone users: Click to watch

It's not common for a political campaign to release data that shows that they're losing. They don't want to be perceived, generally, as ineffective because people don't like to vote for a losing side. Just check out how Congressional candidate Mark Kirk just freaked out yesterday over polling data that shows his lead diminishing.

But the No campaign says that they're worried about complacency in the LGBT community. "We're going to lose this election if we do not raise the money we need to get on the airwaves," said Equality California executive director Geoff Kors. "The community is very complacent and thinks we're just going to win and that's it."

Less recent polling showed the ballot was losing support among Californians, but that polling was performed before ad buys had started.

As for the young voters, Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners said that they're more likely to be affected by advertising and they could easily switch back into the "no" column.

The campaign says they're trying to raise $10M before the election and has more ads planned, particularly around pointing out the inaccuracies in the above ad. The bulk of their spending is going to be for TV ad buys.

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Thanks for the update, Alex. I was wondering what the latest poll numbers were.

I just gave a donation. When will Ellen and Rosie?

Just wondering, are we ready to start working from a strategy that takes the theocratic wedge word "marriage" out for both Hetero-breeder and same-sex unions?

Is the full complement of contractual benefits contained therein more important, or are we really going to keep playing into the religious zealots hands by giving them the "verbal home field advantage"?


(sorry I have not slept)