Columbia politics professors Gelman, Lax, and Phillips (whose statistical work I previously posted on Bilerico), have an analysis piece in the NY Times estimating state-level support for same-sex marriage. They use 2008 state-level projections, demographic information, and estimates of current national support (either 45% or 50%, depending on the poll you use) to get their results. Here's what they think is the case if 50% of Americans support same-sex marriage in 2010:
If it's 45%, here's how they theorize its distribution:
That's a lot of change in just two years, no matter which polls are telling the truth. The 50% map puts support in California above 60%, which is what Equality California's donors said they were looking for before they put a ballot initiative for same-sex marriage back on the ballot (which may not even be necessary).
It appears a tipping point has been reached in many states, as change in public opinion is coming faster and faster. But who knows how that'll affects policy as 89% of people support workplace protections while Congress can't pass ENDA. DOMA repeal could still take a while.