I know, it's 4pm and everyone's exhausted discussing the results of last night. I won't make this long. Without going into too much detail, last night's election mattered in regard to DADT repeal in the lame-duck for four reasons.
The Impact of the Midterms on Repeal in the Lame-DuckFollow Chlapowski
- The special elections. These seats will be filled ASAP - each replacing yes votes from September - bringing in potentially different votes into the lame duck. Let's look at these guys closely.
- Mark Kirk (R-IL) voted against DADT repeal in the House in May, which was somewhat unexpected given he was among the Republicans who was considered among the more likely to vote in faovr. If we get Kirk in the lame-duck, it will likely be with the Pentagon study as cover.
- Joe Manchin (D-WV) is on record calling for additional certification on the study. The study itself may provide cover, but it may not. It may come down to party-line vote for Manchin.
- Chris Koons (D-DE) is definitely not a witch and is adamently in favor of repeal.
Bottom line: we have good reason to be somewhat optimistic for a lame-duck vote this year after last night's results. It's fun to start predicting what 2012 will look like, but we're not there yet. Let's get what we can before the changeover happens.