Alex Blaze

New Hampshire: Proposition 8 redux

Filed By Alex Blaze | January 03, 2011 3:00 PM | comments

Filed in: Marriage Equality, Politics
Tags: California, LGBT, marriage, New Hampshire

The news out of New Hampshire is that the right, after taking over No More Man in the Mountain 365.221the state legislature, is looking to ban marriage between couples of the same sex in that state. Even though the governor is still a Democrat, Republicans control more than two-thirds of both the state's legislative houses, meaning they could override a veto if they vote lock-step against the gays.

On Daily Kos, JP Masser discusses how many Republicans would have to defect in order to maintain the status quo:

What will it take to sustain the Governor's veto? Assuming all remaining Democrats would vote to sustain the veto, it would take four Republican Senators, for a total of 9 votes of out 24, or 32 Republican House members, for a total of 134 votes of out 400 to deny a two-thirds supermajority. My understanding is that the former (finding four Republican Senators) is considered extremely unlikely, leaving it to defenders of marriage equality to round up at least 32 House Republicans (and possibly more, if there are Democratic defectors) -- approximately 11% or one in every nine Republican House members.

32 House Republicans, if there are no House Democrats who switch teams. But since they're Democrats, fat chance:

But do not doubt for a moment that those who want to uphold the law will be vocal, Splaine said. Splaine looked at the numbers and said, if those who support marriage equality can find 50 or 60 Republicans "who will join the Democrats in upholding any veto," he believes they will succeed.

Without a two-thirds affirmative vote in both the House and the Senate, the veto will be upheld. And that's key, said Splaine, as those who support the law work to find enough legislators to sustain the veto in the House.

"This can't become a Democratic Party versus Republican Party contest, because the numbers don't allow that," he said. "We're going to win this by appealing to the better angels of the legislators."

Unless a lot of Republicans cross over, then same-sex marriage, and only same-sex marriage, will be banned.

Which is exactly what California did in 2008 with Proposition 8, albeit by ballot measure instead of through the legislature, and exactly the reason they got sued and lost at federal trial court.

Another similarity is that the Concord Monitor is expecting both sides to dump large sums of money into the state, after NOM already spent a bunch there in the 2010 elections. Because if there's something everyone wants to see ads on during a recession, it's whether two ladies or two dudes should be allowed to get married.

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Not again. I don't want to have to blog about freakin' New Hampshire for an extended period of time this year. There's Wyoming and North Dakota too, people. Look at all the gay positive news stories out of those two! :)

lol. Can you imagine putting all that energy that went into california into new hampshire?