Alex Blaze

Gallup: Majority Support Same-Sex Marriage

Filed By Alex Blaze | May 20, 2011 9:30 AM | comments

Filed in: Marriage Equality, Politics
Tags: Gallup Poll, LGBT, marriage, poll

Gallup joined several recent major polls in finding that a majority of Americans support same-sex marriage

APAugust, 20105246
Wash. Post/ABCMarch, 20115344
CNNApril, 20115147
GallupMay, 20115345

Well, that question is settled. How about some polling on LGBT anti-discrimination legislation, which hasn't had a national, trans-inclusive poll since 2002?

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It's sad that it's 2011 and it's still more or less 50/50...

I don't believe these results. We've seen too often where folks say one thing and then vote a different way when it comes to gay rights issues. It's good to see that we are at least around 50-50 but a clear majority overall I don't believe.

I agree -- while we can't explain exactly why (at least, I can't), people sometimes answer one way to a pollster, then vote the opposite way just a few days later when they are in the ballot booth.

Maybe it's because, when they talk to a pollster, there are no significant repercussions, but when they vote, "it's the real thing" ...

... or maybe, in the ballot booth, they become aware that "only God is watching" ... and then the next thought is, "Oops! ... God is watching!"

Go figure.

There is evidence that people's surroundings influence their decisions and churches are common poll locations. Which would lead to people voting against gay rights more than if they were in their kitchen answering a phone call.

These polls aren't on a specific ballot issue (i.e. "Will you vote for Prop X?") and they didn't restrict to registered voters and there never will be a ballot issue for everyone in the US to vote on when it comes to marriage.

The last Field Poll in California had Prop 8 losing 44-49, but then the 49 voting against it turned out to be more important than the other number.

Anyway, these numbers aren't being put out to predict a vote.

What's the margin of error for each poll?

Nevermind, the links have the margin of error for each.

I really wish polls like this had the range of values.

Here's what they are when that is taken into account (95% confidence).

AP: 47.5-56.5 Favored 41.5-50.5 Opposed
WP/ABC: 49.5-56.5 Favored 40.5-47.5 Opposed
CNN: 47.5-54.5 Favored 43.5-50.5 Opposed
Gallup: 49-57 Favored 41-49 Opposed

Seeing as this are multiple sources of data, it does look like there is a slim majority in favor of same sex marriage, if only just.

Brad Bailey | May 21, 2011 12:07 AM

I'd hardly call 52% a mandate. SSM may or may favored in the polls, but it's far from being favored by state legislation. Last I heard, 31 states ban it.

It'll never happen in my state, at least not in my lifetime. I've resigned myself to the fact.

I'm sure you don't believe these polls with 100 percent certitude, Alex, so I don't mean to condescend, but I think that too often, we look at polls like these and say that the fight is nearly over. Call me a skeptic, but I've never put too much stock in these opinion polls...