John M. Becker

Scary: GOP Has 60% Chance of Retaking Senate, Nate Silver Predicts

Filed By John M. Becker | March 24, 2014 5:00 PM | comments

Filed in: Politics
Tags: election 2014, election predictions, elections matter, Nate Silver, statistics

nate-silver.pngIf I've said it once I've said it a thousand times: elections matter. One party (the Democrats), for all their flaws, enthusiastically support LGBT equality and embrace the LGBT community, while the other party (the Republicans) is on the wrong side of basically every major LGBT civil rights issue there is.

And that's why the video below should send chills down every LGBT person's spine: statistician and whiz kid Nate Silver, who accurately predicted all 50 states in the last presidential election, has calculated that the Republican Party has a 60% chance of retaking the Senate this year.

Why does this matter, you ask, since the GOP-controlled House is already able to block any meaningful legislative progress on LGBT issues? Well, for starters, the Senate is the chamber that confirms judicial nominees, meaning that if Republicans took control, they could grind the process to a halt, refusing to confirm any of the President's appointees and robbing him of the ability to mold the judiciary in his own, pro-LGBT image. (Think of what this would mean if Ruth Bader Ginsburg or Stephen Breyer died or retired...)

Furthermore, if the Republicans took the Senate, President Obama's veto pen would be the only thing protecting the LGBT community from the Tea Party's extremist agenda.

A frightening prospect, wouldn't you say?


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