John M. Becker

Nate Silver: 60-40 Chance of GOP Senate Takeover

Filed By John M. Becker | August 04, 2014 12:30 PM | comments

Filed in: Politics
Tags: GOP 2014, Nate Silver, predictions, Republican Party, statistics

nate-silver.pngWell, this is alarming -- Nate Silver writes at FiveThirtyEight.com:

"[T]he most likely outcome involves the Republicans winning about the six seats they need to take over the Senate, give or take a couple... Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats for Republicans. That makes them very slight favorites -- perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-40 -- to take control of the Senate, but also doesn't leave them much room for error. This bottom line is not much changed from our forecasts in June or in March (or even the one we issued last July).

"The outlook in some races has changed -- but most of these changes are minor. At this point in the cycle, I'd be suspicious of a large swing in a forecast in the absence of some precipitating event. Most voters are not paying much attention to the campaigns yet... After Labor Day, polling changes will be more likely to reflect true changes in voter sentiment."

Indeed, as we reported here at Bilerico, Silver's latest prediction is the same as the one he made in March.

David Badash over at The New Civil Rights Movement has a list of potential (and terrifying) events he predicts we might see if Republicans hold the House and take the Senate. They include impeachment or censure of President Obama, further attempts to repeal Obamacare, the passage of anti-choice, anti-women, and anti-LGBT laws, especially under the guise of "religious liberty," and further crackdowns on voting rights and undocumented immigrants. (Check it out in full here.)

What do you think of David's list, and of the possibility of even greater Republican obstructionism?

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